Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

16623 13 91077 2 263808 document 91077 s41558-020-0883-0.pdf application/pdf ffc42d9599885601952b3b41547edc32 MD5 2339942 2020-08-07 10:22:20 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16623/1/s41558-020-0883-0.pdf 16623 1 1 application/pdf text en public arr

s41558-020-0883-0.pdf

published 91078 2 263810 document 91078 lightbox.jpg image/png 7b3e494be4a214370b8edf06208ef53c MD5 70784 2020-08-07 10:32:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16623/2/lightbox.jpg 16623 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91077 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91077 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91077 archive 353 disk0/00/01/66/23 2020-08-07 09:35:05 2021-08-27 17:33:23 2020-08-07 09:35:05 article show Forster P.M. Forster H.I. Evans M.J. Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Jones C.D. Keller C.A. Lamboll R.D. Quéré C.L. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Rosen D Schleussner C-F Richardson T.B. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Turnock S.T. Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19 pub prog_ene The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050. 2020-08-06 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0 103 254 3162 public Nature Climate Change TRUE 1758-678X Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641816//CRESCENDO info:eu-repo/semantics/article