Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

16711 9 91535 2 265024 document 91535 Smith2020_Article_ImpactOfMethaneAndBlackCarbonM.pdf application/pdf 5f8448f811be94716262a92101665dec MD5 1044675 2020-09-18 07:28:20 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16711/1/Smith2020_Article_ImpactOfMethaneAndBlackCarbonM.pdf 16711 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Smith2020_Article_ImpactOfMethaneAndBlackCarbonM.pdf

published 91536 1 265030 document 91536 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 2f82f0f88bb8388564df4fec9b09802a MD5 11301 2020-09-18 07:38:18 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16711/2/indexcodes.txt 16711 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91535 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91535 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/91535 archive 353 disk0/00/01/67/11 2020-09-18 07:31:45 2021-08-27 17:33:34 2020-09-18 07:31:45 article show Smith S.J. Chateau J. Dorheim K. Drouet L. Durand-Lasserve O. Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Hanaoka T. 7814 Harmsen M. Hilaire J. Keramidas K. Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Luderer G. Moura M.C.P. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Sano F. van Vuuren D. Wada K. Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis pub prog_air prog_ene The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. 2020-09-17 published Springer 10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3 97 2881 1311 159 250 254 public Climatic Change TRUE 1573-1480 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article