Building plausible futures: Scenario-based strategic planning of industrial development of Kyrgyzstan

16786 13 93048 3 269652 document 93048 1-s2.0-S0016328720301373-main.pdf application/pdf 2da983ec4021f101b3cd4db34f21031e MD5 4884834 2021-01-22 14:31:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16786/1/1-s2.0-S0016328720301373-main.pdf 16786 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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published 93049 2 269654 document 93049 lightbox.jpg image/png 2440a557bc62b322ec2ec7712f33b9ba MD5 45300 2021-01-22 14:41:16 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16786/2/lightbox.jpg 16786 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93048 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93048 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93048 archive 353 disk0/00/01/67/86 2020-10-19 05:26:44 2021-08-27 17:33:43 2020-10-19 05:26:44 article show Strelkovskii N. 8719 0000-0001-6862-1768 Komendantova N. 1880 0000-0003-2568-6179 Sizov S. 2150 0000-0003-1731-4455 Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Building plausible futures: Scenario-based strategic planning of industrial development of Kyrgyzstan pub prog_asa prog_cer2 Industrial development; Kyrgyzstan; participatory governance; scenario planning Industrial development is often considered to be a major engine of economic growth. Kyrgyzstan is an open, small, landlocked, developing economy in Central Asia. In 2018 the Government of Kyrgyzstan decided to elaborate a new industrial development strategy that would facilitate economic growth, reduce the country’s dependence on foreign financing, and increase the welfare of inhabitants. This paper presents a set of plausible scenarios of industrial development of Kyrgyzstan to 2040. The scenarios were used as a basis for a Strategy for the Sustainable Development of Industry in Kyrgyzstan for 2019–2023, prepared by co-authors of this paper in collaboration with local experts in 2018. This strategy was officially adopted by the Government of Kyrgyzstan in September 2019. To construct scenarios, we used an approach developed by Roland Berger and Leipzig Graduate School of Management (HHL) Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning within the Intuitive Logics scenario planning paradigm. This approach relies on a systematic step-by-step scenario-building process that can be carried out when time and resources are limited. We augmented this approach by revealing and utilizing causal relationships among drivers. We also considered a denser spectrum of scenarios. The outcomes of each scenario-planning step were validated in consultations with local stakeholders. We also designed a monitoring dashboard based on well-established publicly available development indicators. These can help policymakers identify which scenario the system under consideration is tending toward, so that necessary policy interventions can be executed in a timely manner. 2020-12 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102646 298 161 2915 260 public Futures 124 e102646 TRUE 1873-6378 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article