Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

16892 15 92386 4 268089 document 92386 NG Perspective Final_postprint.pdf application/pdf ea3cfcf764a2978a3f87777c202d8661 MD5 947782 2020-12-01 16:51:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16892/1/NG%20Perspective%20Final_postprint.pdf 16892 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

NG Perspective Final_postprint.pdf

accepted 92387 2 268093 document 92387 lightbox.jpg image/png 51efb6bbd5ed479dca79620db21f95e7 MD5 48189 2020-12-01 17:02:16 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16892/2/lightbox.jpg 16892 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92386 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92386 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92386 archive 2 disk0/00/01/68/92 2020-12-01 11:58:34 2024-09-09 12:45:58 2020-12-01 11:58:34 article show Matthews H.D. Tokarska K.B. Nicholls Z.R.J. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Canadell J.G. Friedlingstein P. Frölicher T.L. Forster P.M. Gillett N.P. Ilyina T. Jackson R.B. Jones C.D. Koven C. Knutti R. MacDougall A.H. Meinshausen M. Mengis N. Séférian R. Zickfeld K. Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy pub prog_ene The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates range widely, however, and this uncertainty can be used to either trivialize the most ambitious mitigation targets by characterizing them as impossible, or to argue that there is ample time to allow for a gradual transition to a low-carbon economy. Neither of these extremes is consistent with our best understanding of the policy implications of remaining carbon budgets. Understanding the scientific and socio-economic uncertainties affecting the size of the remaining carbon budgets, as well as the methodological choices and assumptions that underlie their calculation, is essential before applying them as a policy tool. Here we provide recommendations on how to calculate remaining carbon budgets in a traceable and transparent way, and discuss their uncertainties and implications for both international and national climate policies. 2020 Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3 https://rdcu.be/cbuVD 254 public Nature Geoscience 13 12 769-779 TRUE 1752-0894 Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641816//CRESCENDO info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess