Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates

16931 16 92600 4 268581 document 92600 20040_2_merged_1603809346.pdf application/pdf 3910a2093f9eca3fb7b7b71c43d8b112 MD5 331586 2020-12-14 12:29:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16931/1/20040_2_merged_1603809346.pdf 16931 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

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accepted 92601 2 268586 document 92601 lightbox.jpg image/png 43e590bb506cc2820711e38415984bdc MD5 27686 2020-12-14 12:39:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16931/2/lightbox.jpg 16931 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92600 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92600 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92600 archive 353 disk0/00/01/69/31 2020-12-14 11:22:27 2022-03-15 10:13:52 2021-03-10 09:41:22 article show McKenna C.M. Maycock A.C. Forster P.M. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Tokarska K.B. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates pub prog_ene Following the Paris Agreement, many countries are enacting targets to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. Stringent mitigation will have clear societal benefits in the second half of this century by limiting peak warming and stabilizing climate. However, the near-term benefits of mitigation are generally thought to be less clear because forced surface temperature trends can be masked by internal variability. Here we use observationally constrained projections from the latest comprehensive climate models and a simple climate model emulator to show that pursuing stringent mitigation consistent with holding long-term warming below 1.5 °C reduces the risk of unprecedented warming rates in the next 20 years by a factor of 13 compared with a no mitigation scenario, even after accounting for internal variability. Therefore, in addition to long-term benefits, stringent mitigation offers substantial near-term benefits by offering societies and ecosystems a greater chance to adapt to and avoid the worst climate change impacts. 2021-02 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9 3162 public Nature Climate Change 11 12 126-131 TRUE 1758-678X Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess