An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

16998 13 92975 2 269475 document 92975 s43247-020-00064-9.pdf application/pdf ec276811f61d5d229f8fff002e6320eb MD5 1555538 2021-01-19 10:31:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16998/1/s43247-020-00064-9.pdf 16998 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 92976 1 269481 document 92976 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 4dbf23ceec514341d188e4f389188c5e MD5 12360 2021-01-19 10:38:27 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16998/2/indexcodes.txt 16998 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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supplemental 92978 2 269484 document 92978 lightbox.jpg image/png 5629730252329c28948b5a28478fc4e9 MD5 39407 2021-01-19 10:42:04 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16998/4/lightbox.jpg 16998 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92975 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92975 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92975 92982 1 269488 document 92982 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 9ab6d43662088f45f3d5d67ac4fabfe5 MD5 3504 2021-01-19 10:42:13 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16998/8/indexcodes.txt 16998 8 8 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92977 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92977 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/92977 archive 2 disk0/00/01/69/98 2021-01-19 10:35:25 2024-09-09 12:38:06 2021-01-19 10:35:25 article show Damon Matthews H. Tokarska K.B. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 MacDougall A.H. Haustein K. Mengis N. Sippel S. Forster P.M. Knutti R. An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget pub ECE IACC TISS The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2. 2021-01-18 Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9 254 3162 public Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 e7 TRUE 2662-4435 Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess