EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

17048 9 93273 2 270251 document 93273 Sugiyama2021_Article_EMF35JMIPStudyForJapanSLong-te.pdf application/pdf cd4bbd0ac7d8e33c39a5de342d0a5fb5 MD5 1472659 2021-02-23 12:31:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17048/1/Sugiyama2021_Article_EMF35JMIPStudyForJapanSLong-te.pdf 17048 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Sugiyama2021_Article_EMF35JMIPStudyForJapanSLong-te.pdf

published 93274 1 270257 document 93274 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 7aeac75bacf62d0f2426b8770080d0ef MD5 17682 2021-02-23 12:41:06 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17048/2/indexcodes.txt 17048 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93273 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93273 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93273 archive 353 disk0/00/01/70/48 2021-02-23 12:33:04 2021-08-27 17:34:22 2021-02-23 12:33:04 article show Sugiyama M. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Wada K. Oshiro K. Kato E. Komiyama R. Silva Herran D. Matsuo Y. Shiraki H. Ju Y. EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings pub ECE S3 TISS Carbon neutrality; Climate change mitigation; Integrated assessment; Long-term strategy; National climate policy; Net-zero emissions; Uncertainty In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target. 2021-02-17 published Springer-Verlag 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2 2881 public Sustainability Science TRUE 1862-4065 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article