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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93790 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93790 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/93790 archive 353 disk0/00/01/71/47 2021-03-31 08:33:20 2024-09-09 12:47:19 2021-03-31 08:33:20 article show 2 Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Vinca A. 2193 0000-0002-3051-178X Lovat F. 2270 0000-0002-4331-980X Boza-Kiss B. 2149 0000-0003-4005-2481 van Ruijven B. 92197 0000-0003-1232-5892 Wilson C. Rogelj J. Zakeri B. 2189 0000-0001-9647-2878 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 submitted ECE IACC S3 TISS COVID-19 pandemic, energy use trends, energy transition The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. However, how a post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here, we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the demand-side effect on final energy and GHG emissions. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 12 to 40 EJ/yr by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 of 28 to 53 GtCO2, depending on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with low energy demand practices - embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption, and production – reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5°C consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by 2.1 trillion USD, and lessens pressure on the upscaling of renewable energy technologies. 2021-02 submitted Nature Publishing Group 10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1 3149 2965 3190 2913 3102 3099 97 250 public Nature Portfolio FALSE COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article