The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach

17230 11 94213 3 274112 document 94213 1-s2.0-S2212828X21000219-main.pdf application/pdf 7bf44be76d8a57a3a91478b00a042cac MD5 796363 2021-05-31 07:21:57 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17230/1/1-s2.0-S2212828X21000219-main.pdf 17230 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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2023-05-29 accepted 94216 1 274129 document 94216 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 4c7a32aba990093f83f85045030ae82c MD5 13546 2021-05-31 07:30:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17230/2/indexcodes.txt 17230 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/94213 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/94213 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/94213 archive 353 disk0/00/01/72/30 2021-05-31 07:23:56 2023-05-29 03:00:02 2021-05-31 07:23:56 article show Chen S. Prettner K. Kuhn M. 2235 Bloom D.E. The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach pub EF COVID-19; Economic burden; HMM; VSL; USH; uman capital Objectives To assess the economic burden of COVID-19 that would arise absent behavioral or policy responses under the herd immunity approach in the United States and compare it to total burden that also accounts for estimates of the value of lives lost. Methods We use the trajectories of age-specific human and physical capital in the production process to calculate output changes based on a human capital–augmented production function. We also calculate the total burden that results when including the value of lives lost as calculated from mortality rates of COVID-19 and estimates for the value of a statistical life in the United States based on studies assessing individual’s willingness to avoid risks. Results Our results indicate that the GDP loss associated with unmitigated COVID-19 would amount to a cumulative US$1.4 trillion by 2030 assuming that 60 percent of the population is infected over three years. This is equivalent to around 7.7 percent of GDP in 2019 (in constant 2010 US$) or an average tax on yearly output of 0.6 percent. After applying the value of a statistical life to account for the value of lives lost, our analyses show that the total burden can mount to between US$17 to 94 trillion over the next decade, which is equivalent to an annual tax burden between 8 and 43 percent. Conclusion Our results show that the Unite States would incur a sizeable burden if it adopted a non-interventionist herd immunity approach. 2021-10-01 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.jeoa.2021.100328 3124 public The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 20 e100328 TRUE 2212-828X Economics of Equal Life Chances (EELC) FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article