Causal Loop Diagramming of Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: State-of-the-Art, Gaps and Good Practices

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supplemental 95104 2 293192 document 95104 lightbox.jpg image/png dd49a9ead832662ad30ece6a10951402 MD5 52305 2021-09-03 11:28:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17401/9/lightbox.jpg 17401 9 9 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95103 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95103 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95103 archive 2 disk0/00/01/74/01 2021-09-02 12:04:27 2021-09-03 11:28:37 2021-09-02 12:04:27 article show Strelkovskii N. 8719 0000-0001-6862-1768 Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Causal Loop Diagramming of Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: State-of-the-Art, Gaps and Good Practices pub ASA CAT EM causal loop diagram; systems thinking; COVID-19; network theory The complexity, multidimensionality, and persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic have prompted both researchers and policymakers to turn to transdisciplinary methods in dealing with the wickedness of the crisis. While there are increasing calls to use systems thinking to address the intricacy of COVID-19, examples of practical applications of systems thinking are still scarce. We revealed and reviewed eight studies which developed causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a broader socioeconomic system. We find that major drivers across all studies are the magnitude of the infection spread and government interventions to curb the pandemic, while the most impacted variables are public perception of the pandemic and the risk of infection. The reviewed COVID-19 CLDs consistently exhibit certain complexity patterns, for example, they contain a higher number of two- and three-element feedback loops than comparable random networks. However, they fall short in representing linear complexity such as multiple causes and effects, as well as cascading impacts. We also discuss good practices for creating and presenting CLDs using the reviewed diagrams as illustration. We suggest that increasing transparency and rigor of the CLD development processes can help to overcome the lack of systems thinking applications to address the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis. 2021-09-02 MDPI 10.3390/systems9030065 298 260 public Systems 9 3 e65 TRUE 2079-8954 info:eu-repo/semantics/article