China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

17451 8 95357 2 293776 document 95357 e2108900118.full.pdf application/pdf c88e4d5dd85b62db978be9d6f7b34cc5 MD5 864181 2021-09-29 12:39:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17451/1/e2108900118.full.pdf 17451 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95357 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95357 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95357 archive 353 disk0/00/01/74/51 2021-09-29 12:41:43 2025-10-01 13:14:30 2021-09-29 12:41:43 article show Marois G. 2145 0000-0002-2701-6286 Gietel-Basten S. Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity pub POPJUS MDM SHAW H2A fertility; China; aging; human capital; dependency ratio China’s low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure–based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong—especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called “productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio” can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged. 2021-10-05 published National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2108900118 2905 190 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 40 e2108900118 TRUE 1091-6490 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article