Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

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Kikstra2021_COVID_energydemand_SI.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95645 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95645 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95645 archive 2 disk0/00/01/74/88 2021-10-11 17:12:18 2024-09-09 12:44:40 2021-10-11 17:12:18 article show Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Vinca A. 2193 0000-0002-3051-178X Lovat F. 2270 0000-0002-4331-980X Boza-Kiss B. 2149 0000-0003-4005-2481 van Ruijven B. 92197 0000-0003-1232-5892 Wilson C. 8428 0000-0001-8164-3566 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Zakeri B. 2189 0000-0001-9647-2878 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes pub ECE IACC S3 TISS COVID-19; mitigation scenarios: energy demand; CO2 emissions The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies. 2021-10-11 Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8 3149 2965 3190 2913 3102 333 254 3099 97 250 public Nature Energy 6 1114-1123 TRUE 2058-7546 https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/workspaces/60. data https://github.com/iiasa/message_ix author https://docs.messageix.org/en/stable/ publ https://github.com/iiasa/covid-energy-demand-scenarios author https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5211169 data Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE, H2020 821124) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821124/EU//NAVIGATE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE info:eu-repo/semantics/article