Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts

17599 9 95794 2 294836 document 95794 Schultes_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104053.pdf application/pdf 827a5a2dfa78bcd5dfa9dc3ee059637a MD5 1236663 2021-10-22 17:57:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17599/1/Schultes_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104053.pdf 17599 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Schultes_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104053.pdf

published 95795 1 294842 document 95795 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 3ae757df6461c632a91fb28dc76d6e58 MD5 11659 2021-10-22 18:05:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17599/2/indexcodes.txt 17599 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95794 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95794 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95794 archive 2 disk0/00/01/75/99 2021-10-22 17:59:10 2024-09-09 12:40:45 2021-10-22 17:59:10 article show Schultes A. Piontek F. Soergel B. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Baumstark L. Kriegler E. Edenhofer O. Luderer G. Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts pub ECE IACC TISS Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only. 2021-10-19 Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce 254 public Environmental Research Letters 16 10 e104053 TRUE 1748-9326 Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) Assessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation (AXIS, H2020 776608) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776608/EU//AXIS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess