COVID-19 and Optimal Lockdown Strategies: The Effect of New and More Virulent Strains

17612 13 95882 2 295071 document 95882 10.1007_978-3-030-78334-1_9.pdf application/pdf be80d40de49c66bde5019781aad53bb2 MD5 395834 2021-10-29 08:33:40 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17612/1/10.1007_978-3-030-78334-1_9.pdf 17612 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

10.1007_978-3-030-78334-1_9.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95882 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95882 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95882 archive 2 disk0/00/01/76/12 2021-10-29 08:33:56 2025-10-01 13:14:30 2021-10-29 08:33:56 book_section show Caulkins J.P. Grass D. 2248 Feichtinger G. Hartl R.F. Kort P.M. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz A. 2025 Seidl A. Wrzaczek S. 9380 COVID-19 and Optimal Lockdown Strategies: The Effect of New and More Virulent Strains pub ASA EM EF POPJUS SHAW H2A COVID-19 Most nations have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by locking down parts of their economies starting in early 2020 to reduce the infectious spread. The optimal timing of the beginning and end of the lockdown, together with its intensity, is determined by the tradeoff between economic losses and improved health outcomes. These choices can be modelled within the framework of an optimal control model that recognises the nonlinear dynamics of epidemic spread and the increased risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system’s capacity. Past work has shown that within such a framework very different strategies may be optimal ranging from short to long and even multiple lockdowns, and small changes in the valuation on preventing a premature death may lead to quite different strategies becoming optimal. There even exist parameter constellations for which two or more very different strategies can be optimal. Here we revisit those crucial questions with revised parameters reflecting the greater infectivity of variants such as the “UK variant” of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and describe how the new variant may affect levels of mortality and other outcomes. 2022-01 published Springer, Cham 10.1007/978-3-030-78334-1_9 3151 100 3362 public 163-190 TRUE 978-3-030-78334-1 2523-3262 Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection Boado-Penas M.C. Eisenberg J. Şahin‬‬‬ Ş. Economics of Disruptive Change (EDC) info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart