Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95901 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95901 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/95901 archive 2 disk0/00/01/76/14 2021-11-01 19:02:49 2024-09-09 12:45:19 2021-11-01 19:02:49 article show Jägermeyr J. Müller C. Ruane A.C. Elliott J. Balkovič J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Castillo O. Faye B. Foster I. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Franke J.A. Fuchs K. Guarin J.R. Heinke J. Hoogenboom G. Iizumi T. Jain A.K. Kelly D. Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Lange S. Lin T.-S. Liu W. Mialyk O. Minoli S. Moyer El.J. Okada M. Phillips M. Porter C. Rabin S.S. Scheer C. Schneider J.M. Schyns J.F. Skalský R. 1986 0000-0002-0983-6897 Smerald A. Stella T. Stephens H. Webber H. Zabel F. Rosenzweig C. Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models pub EM BNR AFE ASA Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. 2021-11-01 Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y 23 92 151 287 public Nature Food 2 873-885 TRUE 2662-1355 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5062513 data https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4954582 data https://www.isimip.org author info:eu-repo/semantics/article