Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

17679 10 96309 3 296939 document 96309 Drouet et al accepted NCC net zero.pdf application/pdf 6278520daa06740dee40ce789232f2b9 MD5 262000 2021-12-01 17:40:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17679/1/Drouet%20et%20al%20accepted%20NCC%20net%20zero.pdf 17679 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Drouet et al accepted NCC net zero.pdf

accepted 96310 2 296942 document 96310 lightbox.jpg image/png bf5982342f2434e72e2ec3a07b6362fa MD5 29112 2021-12-01 17:50:47 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17679/2/lightbox.jpg 17679 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96309 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96309 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96309 archive 353 disk0/00/01/76/79 2021-11-30 07:38:40 2022-05-29 03:00:11 2021-11-30 07:38:40 article show Drouet L. Bosetti V. Padoan S.A. Aleluia Reis L. Bertram C. Dalla Longa F. Després J. Emmerling J. Fosse F. Fragkiadakis K. Frank S. 1944 0000-0001-5702-8547 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Harmsen M. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Oshiro K. Nogueira L.P. Paroussos L. Piontek F. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Rochedo P.R.R. Schaeffer R. Takakura J. van der Wijst K.-I. van der Zwaan B. van Vuuren D. Vrontisi Z. Weitzel M. Zakeri B. 2189 0000-0001-9647-2878 Tavoni M. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change pub BNR IBF ECE IACC S3 TISS Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways. 2021-11 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z 94 97 2881 166 250 3099 public Nature Climate Change 11 1070-1076 TRUE 1758-678X Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE info:eu-repo/semantics/article