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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96424 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96424 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96424 archive 2 disk0/00/01/77/12 2021-12-17 09:55:40 2024-04-29 12:37:40 2021-12-17 09:55:40 book_section show 1 Ekenberg L. 7576 0000-0002-0665-1889 Danielson M. 9381 pub ASA CAT International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 6-9 July 2021, University of Granada, Granada, Spain We discuss a novel method for business risk handling in project portfolios under strong uncertainty, where we utilise event trees including adverse consequences together with mitigation costs and expected effects, where consequence and event probabilities and costs are represented by random parameters. The method has been developed to support large-scale real-life applications of portfolio risk management, where the properties of the probabilities and values are entered by domain experts with often very limited knowledge of probability theory, and we demonstrate how this can be accomplished with minor information loss. The method is currently in use in one of the world’s largest telecom equipment manufacturers which has a vast project portfolio of tenders, with each successful tender subsequently becoming an order in the order book portfolio. 2021 ML Research Press https://proceedings.mlr.press/v147/ 79 3245 public paper 147 341-364 TRUE Proceedings of the Twelveth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. 6-9 July 2021, University of Granada, Granada, Spain info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart