Containing the Risk of Phosphorus Pollution in Agricultural Watersheds

17785 7 96786 2 298232 document 96786 sustainability-14-01717.pdf application/pdf bf3c721f6db9d146bc7426f9d2966b7e MD5 998571 2022-02-02 10:54:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17785/1/sustainability-14-01717.pdf 17785 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

sustainability-14-01717.pdf

published 96787 2 298238 document 96787 lightbox.jpg image/png c60fb7bc69a0318b23d35729521b2f8e MD5 52121 2022-02-02 11:04:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17785/2/lightbox.jpg 17785 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96786 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96786 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96786 archive 353 disk0/00/01/77/85 2022-02-02 10:57:45 2022-02-02 14:15:30 2022-02-02 10:57:45 article show Wildemeersch M. 2075 0000-0002-6660-2712 Tang S. Ermolieva T. 7638 Ermoliev Y. 1445 Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Containing the Risk of Phosphorus Pollution in Agricultural Watersheds pub ASA EM BNR IBF prog_ysp nutrient management; pollution control; Lake Erie; climate change; decisions under uncertainty; stochastic optimization Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient to boost crop yields, but P runoff can cause nutrient over-enrichment in agricultural watersheds and can lead to irreversible effects on aquatic ecosystems and their biodiversity. Lake Erie is one prominent example as this watershed has experienced multiple episodes of harmful algal blooms over the last decades. Annual P loads crucially depend on yearly weather variations, which can create the risk of years with high runoff and excessive nutrient loads. Here we apply stochastic modeling to derive sustainable management strategies that balance crop yield optimization with environmental protection, while accounting for weather variability as well as weather trends as a result of climate change. We demonstrate that ignoring annual weather variations results in mitigation efforts for environmental pollution that are largely insufficient. Accounting explicitly for future variations in precipitation allows us to control the risk of emissions exceeding the P target loads. When realistic risk targets are imposed, we find that a package of additional measures is required to avoid P over-enrichment in the Lake Erie watershed. This package consists of a substantial reduction of P inputs (approximately 30 for different accepted risk levels), adoption of cover crops throughout the near- and mid-century, and cultivation of less nutrient-intensive crops (30 more soy at the expense of corn). Although climate change reinforces these conclusions, we find that the accepted risk level of exceeding P target loads is the predominant factor in defining a sustainable nutrient management policy. 2022-02-02 published Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 10.3390/su14031717 331 83 338 260 219 public Sustainability 14 3 e1717 TRUE 2071-1050 Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society (IMBALANCE-P, FP7 610028) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/610028/EU//IMBALANCE-P info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess