A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning

17806 6 96901 2 298548 document 96901 sustainability-14-01430-v2.pdf application/pdf 4e5534c8216b25eb0fb52c69087ccf0c MD5 473175 2022-02-21 07:45:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17806/1/sustainability-14-01430-v2.pdf 17806 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

sustainability-14-01430-v2.pdf

published 96903 2 298560 document 96903 lightbox.jpg image/png b5aa2eac168bc5a9a30be3888a651d32 MD5 54261 2022-02-21 08:15:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17806/2/lightbox.jpg 17806 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96901 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96901 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/96901 archive 353 disk0/00/01/78/06 2022-02-21 08:07:35 2022-02-21 08:07:35 2022-02-21 08:07:35 article show Ermolieva T. 7638 Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Frank S. 1944 0000-0001-5702-8547 Kahil T. 2103 0000-0002-7812-5271 Balkovič J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Skalský R. 1986 0000-0002-0983-6897 Ermoliev Y. 1445 Knopov P.S. Borodina O.M. Gorbachuk V.M. A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning pub ASA CAT EM BNR AFE IBF WAT climate change; systemic risks; robust land use and irrigation; robust anticipative and adaptive decisions; two-stage STO; safety constraints; VaR and CVaR risk measures Uncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative ex ante and adaptive ex post decisions within a single model. This paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning under conditions of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and two-stage STO from the perspective of learning about uncertainty. Two-stage anticipative and adaptive decision-making with safety constraints provides risk-informed decisions characterized by quantile-based Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex ante and ex post costs and the shape of uncertainty determine the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, management technologies, and natural resource utilization. 2022-01-26 published Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 10.3390/su14031430 83 119 94 142 23 287 338 public Sustainability 14 3 1430 TRUE 2071-1050 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article