Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

17879 7 97188 2 299484 document 97188 Wilson2021_Article_EvaluatingProcess-basedIntegra.pdf application/pdf 95315b9ecb6b631d6640f09cc7cab068 MD5 1873174 2022-03-21 11:56:45 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17879/1/Wilson2021_Article_EvaluatingProcess-basedIntegra.pdf 17879 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Wilson2021_Article_EvaluatingProcess-basedIntegra.pdf

published 97195 2 299509 document 97195 lightbox.jpg image/png eb42449185708a5a04c0fe103fcea1c7 MD5 41380 2022-03-21 12:06:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17879/2/lightbox.jpg 17879 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97188 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97188 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97188 archive 353 disk0/00/01/78/79 2022-03-21 12:00:35 2022-03-21 12:00:36 2022-03-21 12:00:35 article show 1 Wilson C. 8428 0000-0001-8164-3566 Guivarch C. Kriegler E. van Ruijven B. 92197 0000-0003-1232-5892 van Vuuren D.P. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Schwanitz V.J. Thompson E.L. Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation pub ECE IACC S3 TISS Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. 2021-05-04 published Springer 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9 333 3102 166 public Climatic Change 166 1-2 e3 TRUE 1573-1480 Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329) Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308329/EU//ADVANCE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265139/EU/Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates/AMPERE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess