17915 7 97332 2 299854 document 97332 Geophysical Research Letters - 2021 - Smith - Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and.pdf application/pdf d9762fbed1e053fd531f7507e0b7ae26 MD5 907052 2022-03-29 13:20:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17915/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Smith%20-%20Suppressed%20Late%E2%80%9020th%20Century%20Warming%20in%20CMIP6%20Models%20Explained%20by%20Forcing%20and.pdf 17915 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Geophysical Research Letters - 2021 - Smith - Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97332 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97332 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97332 archive 353 disk0/00/01/79/15 2022-03-29 13:23:00 2024-09-09 13:00:17 2022-03-29 13:23:00 article show Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Forster P. pub ECE IACC For the 1960–2000 period, the latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 [CMIP6]) shows less global mean surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial than that seen in observations. In contrast, the previous generation of models (CMIP5) performed well over this period. It has been hypothesized that this suppressed late-20th Century warming seen in CMIP6 is caused by a stronger aerosol forcing. However, we find this to be only part of the story. Not only is the aerosol forcing marginally more negative in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, the greenhouse gas forcing in CMIP6 is also weaker than in CMIP5. These forcing differences are amplified by differences in climate sensitivity between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble, which leads to both a stronger aerosol cooling over 1960–1990 and a stronger greenhouse gas induced warming from 1990, returning the warming post-2000 toward the observed level. 2021-10-16 published American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2021GL094948 3162 public Geophysical Research Letters 48 19 e2021GL094948 TRUE 1944-8007 Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess