Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions

17925 6 97366 2 299944 document 97366 Allen_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_034010.pdf application/pdf b7cf83add6816a752aecb54b6f75131f MD5 2171850 2022-03-29 13:51:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17925/1/Allen_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_034010.pdf 17925 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Allen_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_034010.pdf

published 97393 1 299989 document 97393 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 521c9880525961fe8cda9558871d54c0 MD5 12663 2022-03-29 14:01:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17925/2/indexcodes.txt 17925 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97366 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97366 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97366 archive 353 disk0/00/01/79/25 2022-03-29 13:54:14 2022-03-29 13:54:14 2022-03-29 13:54:14 article show Allen R.J. Horowitz L. Naik V. Oshima N. O'Connor F.M. Turnock S. Shim S. Le Sager P. van Noije T. Tsigaridis K. Bauer S. Sentman L. John J. Broderick C. Deushi M. Folberth G. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Collins W. Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions pub ECE S3 TISS Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality—so called 'win-win' mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of −0.15 K by mid-century and −0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality. 2021-02-15 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/abe06b 2881 public Environmental Research Letters 16 e034010 TRUE 1748-9326 Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641816//CRESCENDO info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess