Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions

17970 7 97578 2 300584 document 97578 oiac002.pdf application/pdf 23c9f5b20b70d5cc425c6d586df75014 MD5 1266144 2022-04-22 08:40:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17970/1/oiac002.pdf 17970 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 97580 1 300595 document 97580 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 271e496f3170a1998970ed144aa10bb9 MD5 22793 2022-04-22 08:49:39 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17970/2/indexcodes.txt 17970 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97578 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97578 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/97578 archive 2 disk0/00/01/79/70 2022-04-22 08:44:34 2022-04-22 08:44:34 2022-04-22 08:44:34 article show Nacke L. Cherp A. Jewell J. 8535 0000-0003-2846-9081 Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions pub ASA CAT Phasing out fossil fuels requires destabilizing incumbent regimes while protecting vulnerable groups negatively affected by fossil fuel decline. We argue that sequencing destabilization and just transition policies addresses three policy problems: phasing out fossil fuels, transforming affected industries, and ensuring socio-economic recovery in fossil resource-dependent regions. We identify the key mechanisms shaping the evolution of the three systems associated with these policy problems: (i) transformations of technological systems addressed by the socio-technical transitions literature, (ii) responses of firms and industries addressed by the management and business literature and (iii) regional strategies for socio-economic recovery addressed by the regional geography and economics literatures. We then draw on Elinor Ostrom’s approach to synthesize these different bodies of knowledge into a diagnostic tool that enables scholars to identify the phase of decline for each system, within which the nature and importance of different risks to sustained fossil fuel decline varies. The main risk in the first phase is lock-in or persistence of status quo. In the second phase, the main risk is backlash from affected companies and workers. In the third phase, the main risk is regional despondence. We illustrate our diagnostic tool with three empirical cases of phases of coal decline: South Africa (Phase 1), the USA (Phase 2) and the Netherlands (Phase 3). Our review contributes to developing effective policy sequencing for phasing out fossil fuels. 2022-02-16 10.1093/ooenergy/oiac002 136 public Oxford Open Energy 1 oiac002 TRUE 2752-5082 Carbon Intensive Regions in Transition - Unravelling the Challenges of Structural Change (CINTRAN, H2020 884539) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/884539/EU//CINTRAN info:eu-repo/semantics/article