Robust evidence for reversal in the aerosol effective climate forcing trend

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99553 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99553 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99553 archive 353 disk0/00/01/79/73 2022-04-27 13:15:56 2022-11-03 14:37:56 2022-04-27 13:15:56 article show 1 Quaas J. Jia H. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Albright A.L. Aas W. Bellouin N. Boucher O. Doutriaux-Boucher M. Forster P.M. Grosvenor D. Jenkins S. Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Loeb N.G. Ma X. Naik V. Paulot F. Stier P. Wild M. Myhre G. Schulz M. Robust evidence for reversal in the aerosol effective climate forcing trend submitted ECE IACC ECEPM Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling inﬂuence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only up to several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow to robustly conclude that the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing – both aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions – has become globally less negative, i.e. that the trend in aerosol effective radiative forcing changed sign from negative to positive. Bottom-up inventories show that anthropogenic primary aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions declined in most regions of the world; observations related to aerosol burden show declining trends, in particular of the ﬁne-mode particles that make up most of the anthropogenic aerosols; satellite retrievals of cloud droplet numbers show trends consistent in sign, as do observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation. Climate model results, including a revised set that is constrained by observations of the ocean heat content evolution show a consistent sign and magnitude for a positive forcing relative to 2000 due to reduced aerosol effects. This reduction leads to an acceleration of the forcing of climate change, i.e. an increase in forcing by 0.1 to 0.3 W m-2, up to 12 % of the total climate forcing in 2019 compared to 1750 according to IPCC. 2022-09-21 published European Geosciences Union (EGU) 10.5194/acp-2022-295 3162 159 public Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 12221-12239 FALSE 1680-7324 Robust evidence for reversal in the aerosol effective climate forcing trend no info:eu-repo/semantics/article