18048 8 98194 4 302005 document 98194 Dvorak_Armouretal_revised_wtables_accepted.pdf application/pdf 6d7eb059b86ff3554d1f66104a8f35fc MD5 440148 2022-07-04 06:56:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18048/1/Dvorak_Armouretal_revised_wtables_accepted.pdf 18048 1 1 application/pdf text en public arr
Dvorak_Armouretal_revised_wtables_accepted.pdf
2023-01-07 accepted 98195 1 302008 document 98195 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 9f39d77e3f3c0a1e5790a66c99b50c0f MD5 10546 2022-07-04 06:57:26 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18048/2/indexcodes.txt 18048 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en staffonly
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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 98197 2 302015 document 98197 preview.jpg image/png d6d694526019dd412e52bad74c5d871a MD5 10428 2022-07-04 07:06:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18048/4/preview.jpg 18048 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en staffonly
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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 98198 2 302016 document 98198 medium.jpg image/png 1c07124df433b6900afe311291148b20 MD5 7562 2022-07-04 07:06:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18048/5/medium.jpg 18048 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en staffonly
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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 98199 2 302017 document 98199 small.jpg image/png 505dd1ddf0ea0976628150c02e03556d MD5 1352 2022-07-04 07:06:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18048/6/small.jpg 18048 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en staffonly
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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98194 archive 353 disk0/00/01/80/48 2022-06-07 07:14:56 2023-01-07 03:00:03 2022-06-07 07:14:56 article show Dvorak M.T. Armour K.C. Frierson D.M.W. Proistosescu C. Baker M.B. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming pub ECE IACC Following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, decreases in short-lived aerosols would lead to a warming peak within a decade, followed by slow cooling as GHG concentrations decline. This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily crossing warming levels before reaching them. Here we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change following cessation of emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080 following eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Assuming a medium-emissions trajectory (SSP2–4.5), we find that we are already committed to peak warming greater than 1.5 °C with 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029 (340 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Probability of peak warming greater than 2.0 °C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Because climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decline, committed warming of 1.5 °C in 2100 will not occur with at least 66% probability until 2055. 2022-06-06 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y 3162 public Nature Climate Change TRUE 1758-678X no info:eu-repo/semantics/article