Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98534 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98534 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98534 archive 2 disk0/00/01/81/56 2022-08-16 06:55:01 2025-12-15 08:38:21 2022-08-16 06:55:01 article show Chrysafi A. Virkki V. Jalava M. Sandström V. Piipponen J. Porkka M. Lade S.J. La Mere K. Wang-Erlandsson L. Scherer L. Andersen L.S. Bennett E. Brauman K.A. Cooper G.S. De Palma A. Döll P. Downing A.S. DuBois T.C. Fetzer I. Fulton E.A. Gerten D. Jaafar H. Jägermeyr J. Jaramillo F. Jung M. 2245 0000-0002-7569-1390 Kahiluoto H. Lassaletta L. Mackay A.W. Mason-D’Croz D. Mekonnen M.M. Nash K.L. Pastor A.V. Ramankutty N. Ridoutt B. Siebert S. Simmons B.I. Staal A. Sun Z. Tobian A. Usubiaga-Liaño A. van der Ent R.J. van Soesbergen A. Verburg P.H. Wada Y. 8940 0000-0003-4770-2539 Zipper S. Kummu M. Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation pub BNR BEC Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production. 2022-08-15 Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6 3143 2601 public Nature Sustainability 5 830-842 TRUE 2398-9629 Respecting safe operating spaces: opportunities to meet future food demand with sustainable use of water and land resources ( SOS.aquaterra, H2020 819202) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess