Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98565 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98565 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98565 98572 2 302859 document 98572 lightbox.jpg image/png 2c425661bc488f104321a6e5ac0bde35 MD5 43384 2022-08-17 07:02:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18159/9/lightbox.jpg 18159 9 9 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98564 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98564 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98564 archive 2 disk0/00/01/81/59 2022-08-17 06:57:27 2025-03-12 05:01:02 2022-08-17 06:57:27 article show Brecha R.J. Ganti G. Lamboll R.D. Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Hare B. Lewis J. 2344 0000-0002-8155-8924 Meinshausen M. Schaeffer M. Smith C. J. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal pub ECE IACC S3 TISS Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here we employ a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate Paris Agreement compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios from the grey literature, including those from Shell, BP, and the International Energy Agency. We compare a selection of these scenarios analysed with this methodology to the Integrated Assessment Model scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We harmonize emissions to a consistent base-year and account for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions, ensuring a self-consistent comparison of climate variables. An evaluation of peak and end-of-century temperatures is made, with both being relevant to the Paris Agreement goal. Of the scenarios assessed, we find that only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario is aligned with the criteria for Paris Agreement consistency employed here. We investigate root causes for misalignment with these criteria based on the underlying energy system transformation. 2022-08-16 Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1 3377 3374 3162 103 public Nature Communications 13 1 art.no. 4304 TRUE 2041-1723 Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess