18198 7 98781 2 303363 document 98781 assessing_the_size_and_uncertainty_of_remaining_carbon_budgets.pdf application/pdf 30201fd09b2964aa58f2015375ff5778 MD5 1069158 2022-09-06 07:16:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18198/1/assessing_the_size_and_uncertainty_of_remaining_carbon_budgets.pdf 18198 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

assessing_the_size_and_uncertainty_of_remaining_carbon_budgets.pdf

submitted 98782 2 303369 document 98782 lightbox.jpg image/png ac558a7c7078498ed731b952334417bc MD5 34515 2022-09-06 07:26:48 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18198/2/lightbox.jpg 18198 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 98783 2 303370 document 98783 preview.jpg image/png 26358663b023969c1cd1336240e264b5 MD5 15353 2022-09-06 07:26:49 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18198/3/preview.jpg 18198 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 98784 2 303371 document 98784 medium.jpg image/png 2c37ae1b6b0172bd43b80b8fa364deac MD5 8759 2022-09-06 07:26:49 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18198/4/medium.jpg 18198 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 98785 2 303372 document 98785 small.jpg image/png 62e6e9cd43b8590ecbeaab9f7e9cc379 MD5 1777 2022-09-06 07:26:50 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18198/5/small.jpg 18198 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 98786 1 303373 document 98786 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 6300ecbae32c904ad27426a56e50b579 MD5 13541 2022-09-06 07:26:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18198/6/indexcodes.txt 18198 6 6 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98781 archive 353 disk0/00/01/81/98 2022-09-06 07:18:49 2024-09-09 12:47:18 2022-09-06 07:18:49 article show 3 Lamboll R. Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Byers E. 2115 0000-0003-0349-5742 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 submitted ECE IACC S3 TISS The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 300 GtCO2 as of January 2022, less than 8 years of current emissions. This estimate changes to 530 and 110 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and the potential warming after net zero is reached. 2022 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1934427/v1 3377 3162 3149 2585 254 public Nature Portfolio FALSE Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets no info:eu-repo/semantics/article