Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts

18242 8 98967 2 303837 document 98967 PaG 10(3) - Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion_ How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts.pdf application/pdf 9e25d2a4a3eb427b6bb74740743b5e7e MD5 2832363 2022-09-21 11:53:25 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18242/1/PaG%2010%283%29%20-%20Emissions%20Lock-in%2C%20Capacity%2C%20and%20Public%20Opinion_%20How%20Insights%20From%20Political%20Science%20Can%20Inform%20Climate%20Modeling%20Efforts.pdf 18242 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

PaG 10(3) - Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion_ How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98968 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98968 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/98968 archive 2 disk0/00/01/82/42 2022-09-21 11:54:59 2023-08-28 14:04:28 2022-09-21 11:54:59 article show Pianta S. Brutschin E. 2250 0000-0001-7040-3057 Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts pub ECE TISS climate policy ambition; climate modeling; climate policymaking; climate politics; emissions lock-in; integrated assessment models; Paris Agreement; public opinion; public support; state capacity Special issue: Exploring Climate Policy Ambition The implementation of ambitious climate policies consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement is fundamentally influenced by political dynamics. Yet, thus far, climate mitigation pathways developed by integrated assessment models (IAMs) have devoted limited attention to the political drivers of climate policymaking. Bringing together insights from the political science and socio-technical transitions literature, we summarize evidence on how emissions lock-in, capacity, and public opinion can shape climate policy ambition. We employ a set of indicators to describe how these three factors vary across countries and regions, highlighting context-specific challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition. We outline existing studies that incorporate political factors in IAMs and propose a framework to employ empirical data to build climate mitigation scenarios that incorporate political dynamics. Our findings show that there is substantial heterogeneity in key political drivers of climate policy ambition within IAM regions, calling for a more disaggregated regional grouping within models. Importantly, we highlight that the political challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition considerably vary across regions, suggesting that future modeling efforts incorporating political dynamics can significantly increase the realism of IAM scenarios. 2022-09-21 Cogitatio Press 10.17645/pag.v10i3.5462 3271 public Politics and Governance 10 3 186-199 TRUE 2183-2463 https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/issue/view/323 author Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess