Cooling access and energy requirements for adaptation to heat stress in megacities

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99320 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99320 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99320 archive 2 disk0/00/01/82/98 2022-10-12 14:40:47 2024-06-01 07:49:59 2022-10-12 14:40:47 article show Mastrucci A. 2129 0000-0002-5611-7780 Byers E. 2115 0000-0003-0349-5742 Pachauri S. 1816 0000-0001-8138-3178 Rao N. 1961 0000-0003-1888-5292 van Ruijven B. 92197 0000-0003-1232-5892 Cooling access and energy requirements for adaptation to heat stress in megacities pub ECE IACC S3 TISS As urban areas are increasingly exposed to high temperatures, lack of access to residential thermal comfort is a challenge with dramatic consequences for human health and well-being. Air-conditioning (AC) can provide relief against heat stress, but a massive AC uptake could entail stark energy demand growth and mitigation challenges. Slums pose additional risks due to poor building quality, failing to provide adequate shelter from severe climatic conditions. Thus, it is unclear how many people in the Global South will still lack access to basic cooling under different future climate and socioeconomic developments. We assess the impact of different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate futures on the extent of population lacking access to cooling where needed—the cooling gap—and energy requirements for basic comfort for a set of 22 megacities in the Global South. We find that different SSPs greatly influence the extent of future cooling gaps, generally larger in SSP3 due low income levels, and consequent limited access to AC and durable housing. Megacities in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have the largest share of population affected, ranging from 33% (SSP1) to 86% (SSP3) by mid-century. Energy requirements to provide basic cooling for all are higher in SSP1 for most megacities, driven by urbanization, and can increase by 7 to 23% moving from 2.0 to 3.0 °C temperature rise levels. Strategies combining improved building design and efficient cooling systems can improve adaptation to heat stress in cities while reducing energy and emission requirements to reach climate and sustainability goals. 2022-10-12 doi:10.1007/s11027-022-10032-7 2872 2585 222 243 3102 public Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 27 8 art.no. 59 TRUE 1381-2386 Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE, H2020 821124) Sustainable development pathways achieving Human well-being while safeguarding the climate And Planet Earth (SHAPE) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821124/EU//NAVIGATE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess