Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories

18438 6 99985 2 306537 document 99985 46-9.pdf application/pdf 9a0dd73f7220465c3178fdc7f6da3fdb MD5 383751 2022-11-29 14:00:28 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18438/1/46-9.pdf 18438 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99985 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99985 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/99985 archive 353 disk0/00/01/84/38 2022-11-29 14:01:40 2022-11-29 14:01:40 2022-11-29 14:01:40 article show Ghio D. Goujon A. 1569 0000-0003-4125-6857 Natale F. Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories pub POPJUS Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015–2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. Results: The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015–2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. Conclusions: In 2015–2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas. 2022-02 published Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research doi:10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.9 110 public Demographic Research 46 261-272 TRUE 1435-9871 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article