Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

18445 9 100029 2 306627 document 100029 Geophysical Research Letters - 2022 - Nicholls - Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1 5 and AR6.pdf application/pdf aa8cb48f6772a7d2f36154e81eef584f MD5 2259809 2022-11-30 08:16:02 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18445/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Nicholls%20-%20Changes%20in%20IPCC%20Scenario%20Assessment%20Emulators%20Between%20SR1%205%20and%20AR6.pdf 18445 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Geophysical Research Letters - 2022 - Nicholls - Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1 5 and AR6.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100029 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100029 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100029 archive 353 disk0/00/01/84/45 2022-11-30 08:22:06 2025-03-12 05:01:02 2022-11-30 08:22:06 article show Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Meinshausen M. Lewis J. 2344 0000-0002-8155-8924 Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Forster P.M. Fuglestvedt J.S. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Byers E. 2115 0000-0003-0349-5742 Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled pub ECE IACC S3 TISS The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated. 2022-10-10 published American Geophysical Union doi:10.1029/2022GL099788 3377 3374 3162 254 3149 250 2585 public Geophysical Research Letters 49 20 TRUE 1944-8007 Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687) Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687/EU//PROVIDE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess