Including water, energy and land climate impacts and adaptation strategies in IAM scenarios

18512 10 100234 2 307309 document 100234 21_6_Vinca_Scenarios_Forum22.pdf application/pdf aa14178a471825372d2d5af384ce94e8 MD5 2078538 2022-12-15 10:55:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18512/1/21_6_Vinca_Scenarios_Forum22.pdf 18512 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

21_6_Vinca_Scenarios_Forum22.pdf

published 100249 1 307350 document 100249 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 8b66ed43fd36bbb3852598b550f5e1fd MD5 3898 2022-12-15 11:05:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18512/2/indexcodes.txt 18512 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100234 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100234 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100234 archive 353 disk0/00/01/85/12 2022-12-15 10:56:42 2022-12-15 10:56:42 2022-12-15 10:56:42 conference_item show 2 Vinca A. 2193 0000-0002-3051-178X Awais M. 2275 0000-0002-6853-758X Byers E. 2115 0000-0003-0349-5742 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Frank S. 1944 0000-0001-5702-8547 Satoh Y. 2080 Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Including water, energy and land climate impacts and adaptation strategies in IAM scenarios pub BNR IBF WAT ECE IACC S3 TISS Recent work on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) has tried to assess and include impacts of climate change with macroeconomic representations. Although several studies focus on geophysical climate impacts on the water, energy, and land (WEL) sectors (e.g., precipitation, crop yields, cooling degree days), most IAMs still do not include these impacts and therefore underestimate the consequences on multiple sectors. Using the latest version of the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM IAM with an explicit representation of the WEL systems, we include climate impacts on the natural system (e.g., water cycle and crop yields changes) and on technologies (e.g., power plant potentials, desalination, etc.) for different sectors. This framework allows comparing mitigation and adaptation scenarios with the corresponding climate impacts in the WEL sectors which affect decision-making on crop choices, water use, and energy production and demands in a system-explicit way that was neglected in previous scenarios. In addition, using uncertainty ranges directly from climate and hydrological models avoids additional error-propagative steps. We develop and compare updated global mitigation scenarios to achieve the 1.5C by 2100 to adaptation scenarios with climate corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 6.0 respectively. Here we show that adding geophysical sector-explicit climate impacts not only affects the investment balance between scenarios but, most importantly, provides new insights into sectoral transitions and regional distribution of mitigation and adaptation costs. 2022-06 published 2965 3170 2585 97 94 268 166 250 public paper Scenarios Forum 2022 June 2022 conference FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject