Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns

18577 12 100557 2 308079 document 100557 Vinichenko_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_014031.pdf application/pdf a4a953c647b5e24ec309ea83424fab3e MD5 1394868 2023-01-19 14:58:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18577/1/Vinichenko_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_014031.pdf 18577 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Vinichenko_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_014031.pdf

published 100558 1 308088 document 100558 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 847963aff08f1f6a3bd13b2e51a681f3 MD5 12095 2023-01-19 15:08:39 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18577/2/indexcodes.txt 18577 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100557 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100557 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100557 archive 2 disk0/00/01/85/77 2023-01-19 15:05:10 2024-09-09 12:40:44 2023-01-19 15:05:10 article show Vinichenko V. Vetier M. Jewell J. 8535 0000-0003-2846-9081 Nacke L. Cherp A. Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns pub ASA CAT Ending the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global level and accelerated by deliberate action? To answer this question, we analyse 72 national coal power phase-out pledges and show that these pledges have diffused to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the global coal power fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed for achieving Paris climate targets. We also show that the ambition of pledges is similar across countries and broadly in line with historical precedents of coal power decline. While some pledges strengthen over time, up to 10% have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war. We construct scenarios of coal power decline based on empirically-grounded assumptions about future diffusion and ambition of coal phase-out policies. We show that under these assumptions unabated coal power generation in 2022–2050 would be between the median generation in 2 °C-consistent IPCC AR6 pathways and the third quartile in 2.5 °C-consistent pathways. More ambitious coal phase-out scenarios require much stronger effort in Asia than in OECD countries, which raises fairness and equity concerns. The majority of the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways envision even more unequal distribution of effort and faster coal power decline in India and China than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or pledged by climate leaders. 2023-01-11 Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6 136 public Environmental Research Letters 18 1 e014031 TRUE 1748-9326 MechANIsms and actors of Feasible Energy Transitions (MANIFEST, H2020 950408) Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) Carbon Intensive Regions in Transition - Unravelling the Challenges of Structural Change (CINTRAN, H2020 884539) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/950408/EU//MANIFEST; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/884539/EU//CINTRAN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess