18654 6 100945 2 308993 document 100945 Who will dominate the global fossil fuel trade.pdf application/pdf dc024883e9afa2447e2cc58ca5a4ce64 MD5 4019842 2023-03-06 09:34:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18654/1/Who%20will%20dominate%20the%20global%20fossil%20fuel%20trade.pdf 18654 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4
Who will dominate the global fossil fuel trade.pdf
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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100945 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100945 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/100945 archive 353 disk0/00/01/86/54 2023-03-06 09:35:18 2023-03-06 09:35:18 2023-03-06 09:35:18 article show Ostadzadeh E. Elshorbagy A. 9801 Tuninetti M. Laio F. Abdelkader A. Who will dominate the global fossil fuel trade? pub BNR WAT energy trade modeling; Global trade networks; RAS method; trade predictive models Fossil fuels are not distributed evenly throughout the world, and hence the countries rely heavily on international trade to secure energy supply. Characterization of the energy trade network is needed to conduct long-term assessments of energy security. This study proposes a modeling framework to assess the evolution of energy trade under current conditions as well as under future scenarios up to 2050. The total trade of each country is estimated with trade predictive models (TPMs) using key variables. Subsequently, a matrix-balancing method (RAS) is used to estimate the annual bilateral trades. The projected energy trade network in 2050 varies under each shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) of the future, with annual fossil fuel global trades among countries ranging between 538 and 215 EJ. Canada, USA, Venezuela, and China are projected to dominate the global trade network, with Canada-USA remaining the most dominant fossil fuel trade link up to 2050. 2023-02 published Taylor & Francis doi:10.1080/09535314.2023.2174002 3467 public Economic Systems Research 1-22 TRUE 0953-5314 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article