Increase of Simultaneous Soybean Failures Due To Climate Change

18707 9 101182 2 309591 document 101182 Earth s Future - 2023 - Goulart - Increase of Simultaneous Soybean Failures Due To Climate Change.pdf application/pdf 2700e16ddb23a15939891c5f1ab164f6 MD5 2855246 2023-04-06 07:56:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18707/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Goulart%20-%20Increase%20of%20Simultaneous%20Soybean%20Failures%20Due%20To%20Climate%20Change.pdf 18707 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Earth s Future - 2023 - Goulart - Increase of Simultaneous Soybean Failures Due To Climate Change.pdf

published 101183 1 309597 document 101183 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 9be54e7e82ba7a226992783b0d480bdc MD5 13998 2023-04-06 08:03:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18707/2/indexcodes.txt 18707 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101182 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101182 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101182 archive 2 disk0/00/01/87/07 2023-04-06 07:57:50 2023-04-06 08:09:46 2023-04-06 07:57:50 article show Goulart H.M.D. van der Wiel K. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Boere E. 2082 van den Hurk B. Increase of Simultaneous Soybean Failures Due To Climate Change pub BNR AFE IBF prog_ysp While soybeans are among the most consumed crops in the world, most of its production lies in the US, Brazil, and Argentina. The concentration of soybean growing regions in the Americas renders the supply chain vulnerable to regional disruptions. In 2012, anomalous hot and dry conditions occurring simultaneously in these regions led to low soybean yields, which drove global soybean prices to all-time records. In this study, we explore climate change impacts on simultaneous extreme crop failures as the one from 2012. We develop a hybrid model, coupling a process-based crop model with a machine learning model, to improve the simulation of soybean production. We assess the frequency and magnitude of events with similar or higher impacts than 2012 under different future scenarios, evaluating anomalies both with respect to present day and future conditions to disentangle the impacts of (changing) climate variability from the long-term mean trends. We find long-term trends in mean climate increase the frequency of 2012 analogs by 11–16 times and the magnitude by 4–15% compared to changes in climate variability only depending on the global climate scenario. Conversely, anomalies like the 2012 event due to changes in climate variability show an increase in frequency in each country individually, but not simultaneously across the Americas. We deduce that adaptation of the crop production practice to the long-term mean trends of climate change may considerably reduce the future risk of simultaneous soybean losses across the Americas. 2023-04-05 doi:10.1029/2022EF003106 92 34 public Earth's Future 11 4 e2022EF003106 TRUE 2328-4277 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7746911 data https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/Q8D85C data REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT, H2020 820712) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820712/EU//RECEIPT info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess