Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101254 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101254 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101254 archive 2 disk0/00/01/87/25 2023-04-20 08:13:50 2023-04-20 08:13:50 2023-04-20 08:13:50 article show Cornford R. 2422 0000-0002-9963-3603 Spooner F. McRae L. Purvis A. Freeman R. Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030 pub BNR BEC biodiversity change, ecological lags, Living Planet Database, population trends, vertebrates To safeguard nature, we must understand the drivers of biodiversity loss. Time-delayed biodiversity responses to environmental changes (ecological lags) are often absent from models of biodiversity change, despite their well-documented existence. We quantify how lagged responses to climate and land-use change have influenced mammal and bird populations around the world, while incorporating effects of direct exploitation and conservation interventions. Ecological lag duration varies between drivers, vertebrate classes and body size groupings—e.g. lags linked to climate-change impacts are 13 years for small birds, rising to 40 years for larger species. Past warming and land conversion generally combine to predict population declines; however, such conditions are associated with population increases for small mammals. Positive effects of management (>+4% annually for large mammals) and protected areas (>+6% annually for large birds) on population trends contrast with the negative impact of exploitation (<−7% annually for birds), highlighting the need to promote sustainable use. Model projections suggest a future with winners (e.g. large birds) and losers (e.g. medium-sized birds), with current/recent environmental change substantially influencing abundance trends to 2050. Without urgent action, including effective conservation interventions and promoting sustainable use, ambitious targets to stop declines by 2030 may already be slipping out of reach. 2023 doi:10.1098/rspb.2023.0464 3568 public Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 290 1997 e20230464 TRUE 0962-8452 https://github.com/rcornf/lpi_lags_2023 data https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7745401 data info:eu-repo/semantics/article