18734 6 101314 2 309879 document 101314 Geophysical Research Letters - 2023 - Fredriksen - 21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models.pdf application/pdf 9bcca61bbf7375c4048b3bc3b7d3bbbf MD5 3632175 2023-04-24 09:07:41 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18734/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Fredriksen%20-%2021st%20Century%20Scenario%20Forcing%20Increases%20More%20for%20CMIP6%20Than%20CMIP5%20Models.pdf 18734 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

Geophysical Research Letters - 2023 - Fredriksen - 21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101314 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101314 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101314 101320 2 309901 document 101320 small.jpg image/png 3c537484e2212c8bbd2382645b27f1f8 MD5 2025 2023-04-24 09:17:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18734/6/small.jpg 18734 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101314 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101314 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101314 archive 353 disk0/00/01/87/34 2023-04-24 09:09:54 2024-09-09 13:00:17 2023-04-24 09:09:54 article show Fredriksen H.‐B. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Modak A. Rugenstein M. pub ECE IACC CMIP6; radiative forcing Although the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) protocol provides an experiment to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), it is only quantified for few models. We present new estimates of ERF for models participating in CMIP6 by applying the method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034145), and validate our approach with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. We estimate ERF for experiments with abrupt changes of CO2, 1% increase of CO2, historical forcings, and future scenarios, and demonstrate that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period, but grows faster than CMIP5 in the future scenarios, ending up at higher levels than CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century. The simulated radiative efficiency of CO2 has not changed much, suggesting that the larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is important for explaining the forcing difference 2023-03-16 published American Geophysical Union doi:10.1029/2023GL102916 3162 public Geophysical Research Letters 50 6 e2023GL102916 TRUE 1944-8007 info:eu-repo/semantics/article