A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

18803 13 101787 3 311018 document 101787 postglasgowWWH_finalversion_figures.pdf application/pdf c2cad2db5df9a762bd51cdf5fc5cede8 MD5 1697261 2023-06-05 06:36:48 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18803/1/postglasgowWWH_finalversion_figures.pdf 18803 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

postglasgowWWH_finalversion_figures.pdf

2025-11-20 accepted 101789 3 311028 document 101789 lightbox.jpg image/png 69aeb333aa1cdc929efc86cecfce4f1a MD5 42113 2023-06-05 06:47:02 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18803/2/lightbox.jpg 18803 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101787 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101787 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/101787 archive 353 disk0/00/01/88/03 2023-05-19 08:43:34 2025-11-20 03:00:03 2023-05-19 08:43:34 article show van de Ven D.-J. Mittal S. Gambhir A. Lamboll R.D. Doukas H. Giarola S. Hawkes A. Koasidis K. Köberle A.C. McJeon H. Perdana S. Peters G.P. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Sognnaes I. Vielle M. Nikas A. A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges pub ECE IACC TISS The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures. 2023-05-18 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0 254 public Nature Climate Change TRUE 1758-678X no info:eu-repo/semantics/article