Headlines
• Between 2000 and 2020, around 4.9 Mha of natural forest were turned into grassland in Colombia.
• We review five policies passed after 2010 that target halting deforestation and enhancing restoration. We analyse their impacts on land use, agricultural production, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and 2040 using GLOBIOM-Colombia.
• Our results suggest that without forest protection measures and restoration policies (‘Inaction’ pathway), a further 1.3 Mha of forests will be converted to agricultural land between 2020 and 2040.
• By stabilizing the area where agricultural activities are allowed and restoring areas that were deforested after 2010 ('Closing the Agricultural Frontier' pathway), emissions from land could turn negative and store 134 Mt CO2 over 2020-2040 in Colombia.
• The natural restoration of endangered ecosystems inside the Agricultural Frontier ('Going the Extra Mile' pathway) could complement existing restoration and deforestation policies, with large benefits for biodiversity and no major trade-offs.
• To realize the alternative pathways, complementary innovations are needed to increase productivity and reduce rural poverty, including equitable access to technology and financing and secure land rights.