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s41467-023-40673-4.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/102730 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/102730 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/102730 archive 353 disk0/00/01/90/22 2023-08-24 11:45:46 2024-09-09 12:43:13 2023-08-24 11:45:46 article show Gambhir A. Mittal S. Lamboll R.D. Grant N. Bernie D. Gohar L. Hawkes A. Köberle A. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Lowe J.A. pub ECE IACC TISS Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO2/yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO2/yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options. 2023-08-23 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4 254 public Nature Communications 14 1 e5117 TRUE 2041-1723 info:eu-repo/semantics/article