The potential impact of banana Xanthomonas wilt on food systems in Africa: modeling scenarios of policy response and disease control measures

19040 7 102840 2 313944 document 102840 fsufs-07-1207913.pdf application/pdf 5a161531da3c28e13aed02efd702b106 MD5 1485793 2023-09-07 08:55:17 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19040/1/fsufs-07-1207913.pdf 19040 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

fsufs-07-1207913.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/102840 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/102840 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/102840 archive 353 disk0/00/01/90/40 2023-09-07 08:57:13 2024-09-09 12:58:53 2023-09-07 08:57:13 article show Petsakos A. Kozicka M. 2327 0000-0002-2323-3689 Blomme G. Nakakawa J.N. Ocimati W. Gotor E. The potential impact of banana Xanthomonas wilt on food systems in Africa: modeling scenarios of policy response and disease control measures pub BNR IBF Africa; banana; disease model; economic model; food security; policy response; Xanthomonas wilt of banana Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is one of the most important diseases threatening banana production in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). In this study, we examine the potential impacts of BXW on banana production, demand, and food security in SSA, if the disease spread across all banana-producing countries in the region. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach that combines a mathematical model of field-level BXW spread over time with a dynamic global partial equilibrium economic model. Since BXW control relies exclusively on management, we analyze three scenarios of BXW spread that are constructed around assumptions about the level of policy response to the disease, and about how this response may affect the adoption of appropriate management practices by farmers to control BXW. Modeling results suggest that if the disease is left uncontrolled, banana production in SSA within 10 years can decrease by as much as 55%, compared to a BXW-free baseline scenario, resulting in economic losses of around 25 billion USD. At the same time, the population at risk of hunger in countries that highly depend on bananas as a staple food is projected to increase by more than 4.6%. Even a limited policy response to BXW can reduce infections and mitigate some of the production, economic, and food security consequences. BXW impacts are almost completely negated when farmers have good knowledge of the disease and fully adopt the appropriate management practices. This result highlights the need for policy frameworks which rely on sustained and coordinated efforts by public and private stakeholders, within and across SSA countries and at different geographical scales. It also aims to raise awareness and promote the adoption of such practices, while also considering local peculiarities and socioeconomic conditions. 2023 published Frontiers doi:10.3389/fsufs.2023.1207913 3307 public Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 7 e1207913 TRUE 2571-581X no info:eu-repo/semantics/article