Migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for the EU member states

19095 6 103125 2 314657 document 103125 Deliverable 4.5 final.pdf application/pdf 1d8a710a83c1bbbaa583d1f6bc9cf47f MD5 7253871 2023-09-26 11:23:13 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19095/1/Deliverable%204.5%20final.pdf 19095 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Deliverable 4.5 final.pdf

published 103126 1 314663 document 103126 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 1cfe2b23e27300e433a529bae96b2c42 MD5 5560 2023-09-26 11:33:12 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19095/2/indexcodes.txt 19095 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103125 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103125 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103125 archive 353 disk0/00/01/90/95 2023-09-26 11:25:05 2023-09-26 11:25:05 2023-09-26 11:25:05 other show 1 Yildiz D. 2175 0000-0001-6192-0634 van Wissen L. Olaya Bucaro O. 2319 0000-0002-9847-1374 K.C. S. 1808 Migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for the EU member states pub POPJUS MDM MIG This deliverable both analyses the output for each migration scenario projected in Task 4.3 separately and compares different scenarios over time. At the total EU level FUME scenarios projected similar total population counts with small differences. The highest EU population in 2050 is projected by Scenario B - Recovery in Europe, stagnation in developing countries at around 518.8 million, and the lowest population is projected by No migration scenario at 387.2 million inhabitants. At national level, population sizes and compositions of the member states and the UK show more variability. Some countries are expected to experience sharp population decline at all FUME scenarios while others experience population growth. In the case of zero migration, all member states are expected to experience population decline, albeit at different paces. Migration flow composition in FUME scenarios is driven by the economical migration model presented in Deliverable 4.2 (D 4.2) and takes into account the size of diaspora and economic factors. Therefore, no surprising new origin-destination country pairs are emerging. However, when future migration flows are broken down by educational attainment the ranking of sending countries change in some cases, such as in France and Spain. 2023-07 published Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.8191587 2960 3260 140 public Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME, H2020 870649) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/870649/EU//FUME info:eu-repo/semantics/other info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess