RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections

19176 6 103522 2 315635 document 103522 AGU Advances - 2023 - Jones - RECCAP2 Future Component Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain.pdf application/pdf bd9d4f3eb9758042a18095bddbd7bbfc MD5 6741396 2023-11-08 12:36:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19176/1/AGU%20Advances%20-%202023%20-%20Jones%20-%20RECCAP2%20Future%20Component%20%20Consistency%20and%20Potential%20for%20Regional%20Assessment%20to%20Constrain.pdf 19176 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

AGU Advances - 2023 - Jones - RECCAP2 Future Component Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103522 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103522 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103522 archive 353 disk0/00/01/91/76 2023-11-08 12:43:59 2023-11-08 12:43:59 2023-11-08 12:43:59 article show Jones C.D. Ziehn T. Anand J. Bastos A. Burke E. Canadell J.G. Cardoso M. Ernst Y. Jain A.K. Jeong S. Keller E.D. Kondo M. Lauerwald R. Lin T.‐S. Murray‐Tortarolo G. Nabuurs G.‐J. O’Sullivan M. Poulter B. Qin X. von Randow C. Sanches M. Shchepashchenko D. 7435 0000-0002-7814-4990 Shvidenko A. 1487 Smallman T.L. Tian H. Villalobos Y. Wang X. Yun J. RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections pub ASA NODES BNR AFE Projections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region-by-region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi-model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross-model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO2 between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil-fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections. 2023-12 published doi:10.1029/2023AV001024 279 281 public AGU Advances 4 6 e2023AV001024 TRUE 2576-604X Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) Observation-based system for monitoring and verification of greenhouse gases (VERIFY, H2020 776810) Resilient forest value chains – enhancing resilience through natural and socio-economic responses (RESONATE, H2020 101000574) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776810/EU//VERIFY, info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101000574/EU//RESONATE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess