Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature (preprint)

19266 8 103904 3 316726 document 103904 v1_covered_ee43e4e3-4566-4865-abc6-cdfa280d7d9a.pdf application/pdf 0c7174dd48b49bda2ce4464d515bd93e MD5 3694692 2023-12-13 12:50:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19266/1/v1_covered_ee43e4e3-4566-4865-abc6-cdfa280d7d9a.pdf 19266 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

v1_covered_ee43e4e3-4566-4865-abc6-cdfa280d7d9a.pdf

submitted 103911 1 316749 document 103911 indexcodes.txt text/plain e38ea5a7f19977d2fc124240da6a74dd MD5 13438 2023-12-13 13:00:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19266/2/indexcodes.txt 19266 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103904 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103904 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/103904 archive 353 disk0/00/01/92/66 2023-12-13 12:51:41 2024-04-19 09:58:59 2023-12-13 12:51:41 article show 1 Waidelich P. Batibeniz F. Rising J.A. Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Seneviratne S. Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature (preprint) pub ECE IACC TISS Recent studies have linked variability and extremes in temperature and precipitation to lower economic growth, but global GDP projections under climate change remain focused on annual temperatures. Here we combine empirical dose-response functions for temperature variability, rainfall deviations, and extreme precipitation with 33 CMIP6 models to examine GDP impacts under different warming levels. We find that at +3°C, global average losses amount to 8% of GDP, with the worst effects (up to 13%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damages, the additional GDP impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by inter-annual variability, especially in lower latitudes. However, accounting for variability and extremes when estimating temperature dose-response functions raises global GDP losses by over 1%-pt. Since tail risks for economic growth are substantial, our results emphasize the need for region-specific risk assessments and reducing uncertainties around future variability and extremes, particularly for developing countries. 2023-08 submitted doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3198712/v1 3149 public Research Square FALSE Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01990-8 pub no info:eu-repo/semantics/article