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WP-24-002.pdf

published 104589 1 318597 document 104589 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ da10c24eda759862b44c41db6e103399 MD5 18574 2024-01-18 08:58:56 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19415/2/indexcodes.txt 19415 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104588 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104588 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104588 104593 2 318601 document 104593 small.jpg image/png 2b266f581276283d065561596b5f594c MD5 1904 2024-01-18 08:59:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19415/6/small.jpg 19415 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104588 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104588 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104588 archive 353 disk0/00/01/94/15 2024-01-18 08:51:25 2024-01-18 08:51:25 2024-01-18 08:51:25 monograph show 2 Zens G. 2431 Thalheimer L. Anne Goujon, Population and Just Societies Program pub POPJUS MIG Understanding the short-run dynamics of conflict and forced displacement is crucial for policy intervention, yet quantitative analyses in this realm are sparse. This is primarily due to the scarcity of high-frequency displacement data and methodological challenges arising when modeling imperfect data collected in conflict zones. Addressing both issues, we develop a Bayesian panel regression model to assess the short-term impact of conflict on displacement in Somalia, utilizing weekly panel data that encompasses 8 million displacements and 19,000 conflict events from 2017 to 2023. Results suggest a rapid and non-linear displacement response post-conflict, with significant heterogeneity in effects dependent on the nature of conflict events. In a displacement forecasting exercise, our model outperforms standard benchmarks, underscoring its relevance for informed decision-making in crisis scenarios. 2024-01-17 published WP-24-002 3663 public working_paper Laxenburg, Austria no info:eu-repo/semantics/book info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess