Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104885 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104885 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104885 archive 353 disk0/00/01/94/77 2024-02-02 09:04:29 2024-09-09 12:38:05 2024-02-02 09:04:29 article show Molina Bacca E.J. Stevanović M. Bodirsky B.L. Karstens K. Chen D.M.-C. Leip D. Müller C. Minoli S. Heinke J. Jägermeyr J. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Iizumi T. Jain A.K. Liu W. Okada M. Smerald A. Zabel F. Lotze-Campen H. Popp A. Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming pub BNR AFE Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning. 2023-08-10 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z 92 public Communications Earth & Environment 4 1 e284 TRUE 2662-4435 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article