Riding the waves from epidemic to endemic: Viral mutations, immunological change and policy responses

19481 20 104945 3 319442 document 104945 1-s2.0-S004058092400011X-main (1).pdf application/pdf 8b3552902abdaf36694729665906c98a MD5 1411521 2024-02-08 09:20:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19481/1/1-s2.0-S004058092400011X-main%20%281%29.pdf 19481 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 104947 1 319448 document 104947 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 54027b1855721e1ffffc4203e3313b97 MD5 17007 2024-02-08 09:20:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19481/2/indexcodes.txt 19481 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104945 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104945 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/104945 archive 353 disk0/00/01/94/81 2024-02-06 08:48:17 2025-10-01 13:14:27 2024-02-06 08:48:17 article show Grass D. 2248 Wrzaczek S. 9380 Caulkins J.P. Feichtinger G. Hartl R.F. Kort P.M. Kuhn M. 2235 Fürnkranz-Prskawetz A. 2025 Sanchez-Romero M. Seidl A. Riding the waves from epidemic to endemic: Viral mutations, immunological change and policy responses pub EF POPJUS SHAW H2A COVID-19; Dynamic optimization; SIR models; Vaccinations Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are an important tool for countering pandemics such as COVID-19. Some are cheap; others disrupt economic, educational, and social activity. The latter force governments to balance the health benefits of reduced infection and death against broader lockdown-induced societal costs. A literature has developed modeling how to optimally adjust lockdown intensity as an epidemic evolves. This paper extends that literature by augmenting the classic SIR model with additional states and flows capturing decay over time in vaccine-conferred immunity, the possibility that mutations create variants that erode immunity, and that protection against infection erodes faster than protecting against severe illness. As in past models, we find that small changes in parameter values can tip the optimal response between very different solutions, but the extensions considered here create new types of solutions. In some instances, it can be optimal to incur perpetual epidemic waves even if the uncontrolled infection prevalence would settle down to a stable intermediate level. 2024-04 published Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.002 3151 3362 3124 100 public Theoretical Population Biology 156 46-65 TRUE 1096-0325 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19481/ no info:eu-repo/semantics/article