19537 7 105193 2 320045 document 105193 s41467-024-46137-7.pdf application/pdf ba0047a93cdb54137b8686389a09fe8e MD5 1463228 2024-03-04 08:26:23 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19537/1/s41467-024-46137-7.pdf 19537 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 105199 1 320056 document 105199 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 65aee68f44f07b967fd11975c342521d MD5 10071 2024-03-04 08:36:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19537/2/indexcodes.txt 19537 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 105201 2 320058 document 105201 preview.jpg image/png bacee6e5373dbee358708e4cf61caeca MD5 25517 2024-03-04 08:36:56 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19537/4/preview.jpg 19537 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 105203 2 320060 document 105203 small.jpg image/png e497553c963e32f907ed94e843baa33d MD5 1869 2024-03-04 08:36:57 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19537/6/small.jpg 19537 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105193 archive 353 disk0/00/01/95/37 2024-03-04 08:31:54 2024-09-09 12:43:12 2024-03-04 08:31:54 article show Cox P.M. Williamson M.S. Friedlingstein P. Jones C.D. Raoult N. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Varney R.M. pub ECE IACC TISS Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards. 2024-02-29 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7 254 public Nature Communications 15 1 e1885 TRUE 2041-1723 Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess