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1-s2.0-S0016328724000442-main.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105333 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105333 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105333 archive 2 disk0/00/01/95/63 2024-03-19 13:16:03 2024-03-19 13:16:03 2024-03-19 13:16:03 article show Steel D. Phillips C. Giang A. Mintz-Woo K. 9148 0000-0002-9216-9561 pub POPJUS EQU Adaptation; Climate change; Climate ethics; Complex systems; Insurance; Societal collapse This article proposes a forward-looking approach to studying societal collapse risks related to climate change. Such an approach should indicate how to study emerging collapse risks and suggest strategies for adapting to them. Our approach is based on three postulates that facilitate a forward-looking approach: (1) collapse, if it occurred, would be a lengthy process rather than an abrupt event; (2) significant collapse risks already exist in some places; and (3) diminishing returns on adaptation to intensifying climate impacts are a key driver of collapse risks. The first two postulates suggests that collapse risks can be studied in process, while the third points to strategies for adaptation pathways that avoid unsustainable diminishing returns. Applying diminishing returns to climate change adaptation, rather than sociopolitical complexity or resource extraction, is also a novel theoretical contribution to collapse literature. 2024-04 doi:10.1016/j.futures.2024.103361 3052 public Futures 158 e103361 TRUE 00163287 info:eu-repo/semantics/article